Sunday, October 2

Are Solid Techniques Enough To Drive Bitcoin Price To $ 100K In 2021?

After scaling to a relative high of around $ 53,000 just over two weeks ago, it appeared that Bitcoin (BTC) was on its way to recovering its previous all-time highs. However, the series of events that unfolded over the past week caused the world’s largest cryptocurrency by total market capitalization to lose nearly 13% of its value, with a single BTC currently trading close to $ 45,800.

That said, the aforementioned volatility appears to have left Standard Chartered’s cryptocurrency research unit completely unflappable, with analysts referring to Bitcoin’s most recent crash as a “false dip” while reiterating that a year-end target of $ 100,000 per BTC is still quite achievable. for the flagship cryptocurrency.

The banking giant believes that Bitcoin will have reached $ 100,000 by “late 2021 or early 2022,” a move that will also be accompanied by a large surge in the value of Ether (ETH). In fact, the research team he pointed that Ether is “structurally” valued at a year-end price between $ 26,000 and $ 35,000, however for that to happen BTC must scale up to $ 175,000.

Contributing factors

To get a better idea of ​​whether a year-end projection of $ 100,000 per BTC is still feasible, Cointelegraph reached out to Ben Caselin, head of research and strategy at cryptocurrency exchange AAX. In his view, last Tuesday’s sell-off was a classic “sell the news” move, adding that he believes an elaborate “bear trap” may have been in play. Caselin told Cointelegraph:

“I hope that $ 100K is still at stake for Bitcoin this year; if anything, $ 100K would be disappointing. In fact, if we follow the flow of shares in PlanB, we are still moving in the lower band, tracking the ‘worst case prices’, which stood at $ 47,000 last month, $ 43,000 in September and a whopping 135 Dollars. K at the end of the year. “

He added that when it comes to Bitcoin, it is more valuable to look at on-chain data than technical price data alone, as it allows users to get a higher resolution view of what is actually happening on the network in real time. .

Similarly, Tommy Schreiner, senior research analyst at crypto data provider TheTIE, told Cointelegraph that there is still a strong chance that Bitcoin could hit $ 100,000 by the close of 2021:

“$ 100K seems as ridiculous perhaps as $ 50K was last year, but there are factors at play that do not completely outweigh that scenario. The recent pullback was primarily a market slowdown as a large percentage of leveraged open interest was removed and effectively reset all bullish traders that were going YOLO. “

Schreiner further emphasized that despite all the economic turmoil around the world, the United States Federal Reserve has shown no signs of stopping the money printer, something he believes is a good sign for relatively riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

In addition, he highlighted that layer one solutions such as Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Polygon and Fantom have continued to bring new money to the global digital asset ecosystem in recent months, something that can also help drive the value of BTC.

“NFT [nonfungible tokens] they are burning a huge amount of Ethereum every day, despite discounting many retail users. So if $ 100K seems ridiculous, maybe look at how far crypto has come in just one year, ”said Schreiner.

Nick Spanos, co-founder of Zap Protocol, believes that the recent acceptance of Bitcoin as legal tender by El Salvador has the digital currency on track to hit the $ 100,000 mark by the end of the year. “Ether is also looking to hit $ 10,000 by then,” he said.

Some doubts for $ 100,000

Lennix Lai, director of financial markets at cryptocurrency exchange OKEx, believes that while the future of Bitcoin looks set for good things, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the top digital currency will close the year at $ 100,000. He told Cointelegraph:

“I think we would see a short-term correction given the outlook on the upcoming US drawdown. Bitcoin is still very sensitive to the global money supply. Yet at the same time, cryptocurrency is becoming a legitimate alternative asset class and everyone is looking for certain parts of the asset allocation. ”

Lai admitted that if in the near to medium future, even if 1% of the world’s total wealth were to flow into Bitcoin, then a price target of $ 100,000 per BTC could easily be reached.

Similarly, for Igneus Terrenus, head of communications at cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, the most compelling case of Bitcoin’s price hitting $ 100,000 this year remains the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) on the United States, which he believes will help open up the BTC market to new entrants such as retirement funds and wealth management products.

“SEC kicked the [BTC ETF] decision from September 8 to its new date of November 14, still within calendar year 2021. Anecdotal evidence shows that its clients ask almost all wealth managers about exposure to Bitcoin. An ETF can be the right vehicle for this to happen, ”he told Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin techniques seem solid

Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin’s fundamentals appear to be pretty solid at the moment. In this regard, Charles Edwards, creator of one of the best-known Bitcoin metrics in the world, Hash Ribbons, recently reclaimed that as long as the flagship cryptocurrency can float above its all-important $ 42,000 resistance zone, it will remain in the green.

At the end of last year, Edwards foretold that by the end of 2021, Bitcoin could have a price target of between $ 100,000 and $ 200,000. He said he would be “surprised” if Bitcoin failed to reach $ 50,000 in 2021, a projection that came true after the coin hit its all-time high of $ 63,000 earlier this year.

In Edward’s view, one of the most important differences between this current rally and previous ones is the comparatively low level of retail interest that has been observed across the board. In fact, to hit a new all-time high this year, he believes that Bitcoin will have to spend a considerable amount of time above the $ 50,000 range. “I think that would attract more retail interest again,” he said.

Although $ 100,000 may not be in the cards for Edwards, he believes the market is slowly but surely approaching price. However, for that to happen anytime in the next three to four months, he believes renewed retail interest must be generated or a significant amount of purchases must be made from leading S&P 500 companies like Tesla.

Looking to the future

Compared to past events, the monetary effects of the 2020 halving have been quite moderate so far, and Bitcoin has only seen a 4-fold increase in value. In comparison, we can see that in the years after the halves of 2012 and 2016, the value of BTC increased 55x and 15x, respectively, suggesting that a move to $ 100,000 might still be possible.

It will be interesting to see how the next few days unfold for the crypto market in general, especially as regulators around the world continue to tighten their controls on this still fledgling industry.