A surge in Bitcoin prices today may be in response to increased speculation that a publicly traded product might finally be approved in the coming weeks.
BTC prices increased 7% in the last 24 hours and increased 32% over the past week, according to CoinGecko. This bullish price action for BTC only, may be a form of anticipation by big bag holders in anticipation of a futures ETF approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
On October 7, Bloomberg Senior Analyst Eric Balchunas answered to an exclamation from Morgan Creek Digital founder and partner Anthony Pompliano, stating that “things are going to get crazy” if an ETF is approved in the fourth quarter. Balchunas reaffirmed that he was 75% sure that approval was imminent.
“While we [are] We are confident that Bitcoin futures ETFs will be approved very soon (like two weeks from now) [are] less certain that they will be a huge success than a physically backed ETF would be. However, it is a big step. “
Given the comments made by SEC Chief Gary Gensler, a futures product will likely be approved first that allows institutional investors to gain exposure to BTC and bet on its future price without actually having any. Balchunas stated that he does not believe a physically backed ETF will be approved anytime soon, but said that eventually:
“At some point the physical will happen. However, the timing is so unclear. Anyone guesses it. Prob months or years. “
He cited “multiple reasons, both technical and anecdotal,” for the two-week futures ETF approval prediction, adding that he was 75% certain.
Noted analyst Alex Krüger also cited the EFT endorsement hype as a driver of BTC’s price action at this time:
This is what the cryptocurrency markets trade now. The dominant narrative is a bitcoin ETF. Disappointment or not, you can worry about it later. https://t.co/aIv3BFZqI4
– Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) October 6, 2021
He added, “by the time the SEC makes the announcement, an ETF would be half price.” Crypto firm Blocktower’s general partner, Mike Bucella, also said that he believes that “people are at the forefront of a futures-based BTC ETF” after analyzing current market activity.
Related: Futures-Based Bitcoin ETF Has ‘75% Chance Of Approval ‘In October
Matthew Dibb, Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer of Stack Funds, echoed the sentiment, commenting that “rumors of a BTC ETF decision at the end of the month are spurring more demand,” before adding that this rally coincides with the anticipation of ETF approval of Proshares on October 18.
The whales have certainly been buying as observed by Crypto Quant CEO Ki Young Ju, who noted $ 1.6 billion in market orders in just a few minutes on October 6.
Someone bought $ 1.6 billion $ BTC through market orders in just 5 minutes.
Short liquidations seem relatively smaller, like $ 17 million at the time.
– Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) October 6, 2021
In late September, Bloomberg Intelligence commodities strategist Mike McGlone predicted that the SEC would approve a BTC futures product “potentially by the end of October.”
On October 5, McGlone speculated that Bitcoin price resistance at $ 50K was about to shift to long-term support in the fourth quarter.