Sunday, August 14

Where will BTC end in November 2021? 5 things to watch out for in Bitcoin this week


Bitcoin (BTC) is back at $ 57,000 as a new week begins after a late surge produced a much better weekly close than many expected.

To make up for last week’s coronavirus-induced selloff and associated price drop, Bitcoin topped $ 58,000 overnight before consolidating to the upside, still up around 5.7% on the day.

The outlook could carry plenty of surprises: Coronavirus nerves remain, as macro markets hint ahead of the open, and sellers still have the option to tap into bullish optimists leveraged on the back of recent earnings.

With everything to play with and the monthly close in under 48 hours, Cointelegraph takes a look at the numbers to see what could shape Bitcoin’s price performance this week.

Bitcoin recovers in record time

Just three days after losing $ 6,000 on a single daily candle, BTC’s price action has already come back off the brink.

In a classic ending to the weekend, BTC / USD surged to produce a weekly close of $ 57,300 on Bitstamp, thus avoiding its lowest weekly ending price in two months.

Since then, earnings have stalled, with $ 57,000 still being the focus at the time of this writing on Monday.

In a new analysis, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $ 52,500 had provided support as a “time-tested bull market indicator.”

“Strong reaction from BTC in the area of ​​the 21-week EMA”, summarized.

BTC / USD 1-week candlestick chart (Bitstamp) with 21-week EMA. Source: TradingView

However, despite the local highs of $ 58,300, Bitcoin has yet to offer a definitive breakout, as the main resistance at $ 60,000 remains intact.

All previous attempts to break out of that sell zone since they lost it as support have ended in a firm rejection.

However, the rebound took some by surprise, the data shows, with liquidations about $ 300 million in the last 24 hours.

Financing fees, which were neutral on Sunday, meanwhile, are also rising, signaling the return of optimism about a reliable rebound in BTC price, and the risk that entails.

“All it took was a daily + 7% candle to dissolve all fears and concerns of a new BTC bear market,” Rekt Capital additional.

BTC / USD, he said, is “progressing favorably” when it comes to the monthly close due at the end of Tuesday.

Coronavirus and a repeat of March 2020

Macro markets are expecting a turbulent start to the week as the new variant of the coronavirus, omicron, continues to weigh on sentiment.

“We really need more answers to determine the impact on growth,” said Priya Misra, global director of rates strategy at TD Securities, saying Bloomberg Monday.

“Risk assets are pricing in uncertainty.”

The past week was characterized by great volatility across the board, as Bitcoin and altcoins followed stocks, oil, and others in a sell-off.

Asian markets appear poised to continue the trend at Monday’s open, with declines of 1-2% scheduled at the time of writing.

With Bitcoin on the rise, any further shake up in macro structures may still halt the newly discovered optimism.

Bulls expect the scenario to play out similarly to March 2020, when a cryptocurrency cross-defeat when Coronavirus entered the world stage subsequently triggered a surge that eclipsed previous highs.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin did not escape unscathed last week as some familiar faces lined up to pour disdain on what they claim is in no way an escape from risk.

“Being less risky doesn’t make Bitcoin safe,” said gold bug Peter Schiff argument On Friday, forecasting that Bitcoin would finally become “as risky as any altcoin.”

BTC / USD 1-hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

$ 50,000 Echoes $ 30,000 Floor

Those concerned about a pullback from current levels potentially need not look too far down on the BTC price chart.

According to the latest order book data from analytics resource Material Scientist, there is now a giant buying wall that should keep the market above $ 50,000.

The stakes may be high as some said this weekend that failing to maintain that level would cause them to reconsider their approach to Bitcoin, but given the size of the support this now seems less likely.

“I’m not sure why everyone is so scared”, Material Scientist summarized on Twitter on Sunday.

“This is the largest bid since the 30,000 low.”

Heatmap of the BTC / USD order book. Source: Material Scientist / Twitter

If $ 50,000 is therefore the new $ 30,000, I would classify the current pullback from all-time highs as modest compared to others, in particular the May drop of nearly 50%.

Meanwhile, Material Scientist noticed something unusual: the same entity responsible for the support also placed resistance at $ 70,000.

“Basically an actor has the whole market under control,” he explained.

“They knew 1 month in advance how all of this would play out.”

Thus, $ 70,000 forms the seminal focus point for bulls eager to see a continuation of the bull run before the end of the fourth quarter of 2021.

D-Day Comes For Three Bitcoin Price Correlations

The next few weeks will be “very revealing” for Bitcoin as it establishes or breaks some significant correlations.

That was the conclusion of popular Twitter analyst TechDev over the weekend as Bitcoin continued. replicate The gold journey since the 1970s.

The curious, even eerie, similarities between BTC / USD in 2020-21 and XAU / USD fifty years ago have endured despite some volatility anomalies in Bitcoin price action.

If the trend continues, Bitcoin faces a dramatic surge with a maximum price of up to $ 280,000. Deadline: mid-February 2022.

“The gold fractal of the 1970s is now precisely aligned and anchored both high and low locally,” he commented in an events update.

“Only December / January affected with the model that runs until the first half of February.”

BTC / USD versus the 1970s gold chart. Source: TechDev / Twitter

An accompanying breakdown of each projected phase of Bitcoin’s metamorphosis since September features this month as off-track. December should see between $ 70,000 and $ 110,000 for BTC / USD.

Beyond gold and it is the Fibonacci sequences that dictate two other correlations They face their moment of truth in the coming weeks.

Both involve Bitcoin’s relationship to its performance in 2017, and so far both remain valid. If one wins over the other, the rate and height of price gains will change accordingly.

A spike of around $ 150,000 could come in mid-December, or alternatively, $ 225,000 may show up in mid-February.

“Mid-December to late January with a ceiling of ~ 230,000 is still my base case,” TechDev wrote.

“Obviously, the front side of that window seems less likely. I couldn’t care less if it’s okay. I’ve seen some compelling work suggesting a high from mid-December to mid-March, with targets of 120,000 to 260,000. “

Responding to praise from Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal, he added that the next few weeks will be “very revealing” for all three correlations.

Where will Bitcoin “Moonvember” end up?

This was once the multi-million dollar question on everyone’s lips, but now, acceptance is slowly spreading that this bull market may take longer than planned to mature.

Related: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week: BTC, BNB, LUNA, MANA, SAND

Despite this, short-term optimism remains.

In a survey conducted on Twitter by the @Bitcoin account that ended on Monday, most of the nearly 50,000 respondents predicted that BTC / USD would end November above $ 60,000.

35% opted for the highest possible price in the survey, with another 25.7% forecasting a November closing price between $ 55,000 and $ 60,000.

@Bitcoin Twitter poll results. Source: Bitcoin / Twitter

Without walking away, it’s easy to forget how far Bitcoin has come in the last twelve months. As Cointelegraph noted, last Thanksgiving, which conveniently also saw a short sell-off, BTC / USD traded at just under $ 16,500.

As quantitative analyst Benjamin Cowen summarized this weekend, “don’t miss the forest for the trees.”