Friday, July 1

Wall Street anticipates a mixed day, giving in yesterday’s rises

Despite the good news about the omicron variant, after it became known yesterday that the first studies in South Africa and Sweden on the new strain show that the booster doses of the Pfizer vaccine are effective, the markets are cautious and today they are trading at the same price. come down.

If yesterday Wall Street closed with the main indices of the US stock market in positive – the DOW JONES rose 1.40%, the S&P 500 rose 2.07% and the NASDAQ rose 3.03% -, this Wednesday, lAmerican futures are trading with a mixed sign: falls of -0.16% for the Dow Jones and -0.02% for the S & P500, while the Nasdaq predicts positive increases of 0.23%.

Politics and macro

Yesterday there was favorable news in the American political arena and In the afternoon it was learned that the Republican and Democratic leaders had reached an agreement to allow the Democrats to raise the debt ceiling in the Senate (upper house of the US Congress). Subsequently, the House of Representatives (lower house of Congress) approved a bill that paves the way for Congress as a whole to proceed to increase the debt ceiling – it is said that the increase will last until after the legislative elections mid-term, to be held in November 2022-. This will finally prevent the US Treasury from running out of resources in mid-December, with the risk that this would have entailed that the country would not have been able to meet its debt payment commitments.

The US API crude inventories recorded a surprising drop of 3.1 million barrels overnight, and official US inventory data for tonight is expected to show an increase of 2.0 million barrels.

The Friday the US CPI will be published. and a figure equal to or greater than 7.0% will increase the tension in the FOMC next week. We’re going to have a central bank policy frenzy next week, but all roads lead to the FOMC. And the odds that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its downsizing and signal an earlier rate hike are increasing.

The meeting between Putin and Biden it seemed to be constructive. Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin met yesterday telematically with Ukraine as the center of attention. The US president expressed deep concern for Ukraine. Biden said the United States would respond with tough economic measures if the situation escalated. Biden and Putin also touched on Iran and cyber attacks.

After the meeting of Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, the North American president spoke with leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. USA will be ready for any eventuality with Russia, and stated that all actions would be specific and robust if necessary. If Russia invades Ukraine, we are prepared to do things that we did not do in 2014.

On the other hand, the Defense Minister of Ukraine He assured that Russia is increasing its military presence on its border significantly in the last hours. Ursula Von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, affirmed that the EU will continue to support Ukraine in the face of possible Russian aggression.

Janet Yellen, US Secretary of the Treasury stated that “the inflation is the biggest concern today. Some of the bottleneck problems will take at least a couple of years to fix. We see some signs of tightening in the labor market ”.

US trade deficit and productivity fall. Trade Balance: -67,100 M $ vs -80,900 M $ previous vs -66,500 M $ expected. Productivity: -5.2% vs -5% previous vs -4.9% expected.

Redbook Index of US Retail Sales (YoY).: 15.3% vs 21.7% previous.

The Atlanta Fed cut the US growth forecast to + 8.6% from + 9.7% previously

Economists discount that the Fed is going to speed up tapering to finish it in March 2022, according to Financial Times survey.

The sChinese real estate sector regrets again, as Evergrande has been unable to pay its overseas Monday obligations, Kaisa has suspended its shares in the HKEX and another promoter, China Aoyuan Group, has stated that it cannot guarantee the fulfillment of its commitments due to lack of liquidity .

Other markets

In Europe, the day is also down. Right now, the DAX yields -0.72% in the 15,699.71, the FTSE 100 trades with slight falls of 0.02% at 7,338.46, the CAC 40 It falls 0.54% at 7,027.31 and the EURO STOXX 50 loses 0.71% at 4,245.64. For his part, Ibex 35 trades with decreases of 1.08% in the 8,466.80 and the italian bag falls 0.91% to 26,887.00.

On Asia, the bulls have once again “taken control” of the session in Asia. Bulls have been imposed in most of the large squares of the continent, favoring indices such as the Japanese Nikkei or the Hang Seng de China have moved away from the lows that marked this month between 3 and 4%. The yuan continues to revalue, until reaching the € 0.139 per unit, again touching highs not seen since March 2016, after the two devaluations of the Chinese currency. With this rise, it has already accumulated a revaluation of more than 10% against the European currency so far this year. With the dollar, it marks the maximums of 2018.

The Hardly, known as the fear index, yesterday registered a severe decline to reach its lowest level so far this month. The selective, in fact, fell to 21.8 points, a level that is slightly above the average registered over the last 12 months, which is slightly below 20 points.

At oil market, crude oil brings falls. Specifically, the futures of the Brent trade with falls of 1.10% at 74.61 dollars per barrel, while those of the West Texas they yield 1.37% in the 71.06 dollars.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin gives 4.62% to 48,950.9 dollars.

At by EUR / USD, the euro is trading 0.23% higher on 1.1293 greenbacks.

Agenda of the day

On USA, the data to follow will be the MBA mortgage application rate (Weekly) and IEA crude oil inventories.

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