Monday, July 4

The Ibex 35 detaches itself from the rest of Europe, which opens with rises

The good news about Covid is dominating the markets. Yesterday BioNTech and Pfizer claimed that a three-injection treatment of their COVID-19 vaccine was able to neutralize the new omicron variant in a laboratory test, an early sign that booster injections could be key to protection against the newly variant. identified.

This Thursday, all of Europe, with the exception of the Ibex 35, opens in green. Specifically, we see increases of 0.12% for the DAX in the 15,705, of 0.36% for the FTSE 100 in the 7,633.81, from 0.27% for the CAC 40 in the 7,033.73 and 0.25% for the Euro Stoxx trading at 4,243.75.For his part, Ibex 35 0.14% is left at 8,465 points

In relation to yesterday’s Pfizer story, Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia-Pacific, OANDA notes that “considering that the United States and Europe are not getting 65% of their population to receive even two injections, let alone a third, we can assume two things. The omicron will still play a role in increasing cases during the winter, and the hoarding of vaccines by rich countries will continue until 35% of their populations cease to follow. advice from social media and to say me, me, me instead of us, us, us, which means that the poor in the rest of the world will be waiting longer, thus allowing a greater likelihood of more unpleasant variants emerging. And so the cycle continues, sigh … “.

From Link Securities they explain that “despite the fact that the flow of news about the new variant of Covid-19 continued to be positive – although it is confirmed that Ómicron is more transmissible than the previous variants of the virus, its symptoms are also much milder , as it seems that the fact that hospital occupancy levels in South Africa continue to be low is demonstrating, in Europe the current “problem” is posed by the high increase in “positives” that the Delta variable is causing and the “fear “From the different governments to a future spread of the Ómicron throughout the region. That is why in recent days many governments, including the United Kingdom, Denmark or France, have again announced restrictions on mobility and activity in some sectors, something that will have a negative impact on the economies of the region, whose growth is already in a sharp slowdown.A scenario of lower growth and high inflation, v A variable that has gone from “transitory” to “more permanent” in a few weeks – yesterday was the Vice President of the ECB, de Guindos, who spoke of “this transformation” -, we understand that it will greatly complicate the actions of central banks that, As many investors fear, they could end up making a big mistake, either by default or by excess. For all that has been said, it is understandable that yesterday the short-term investors took advantage of the strong rises experienced by many European stocks during the two preceding sessions and opted to make some profits. ”

Other markets

On Asia, declines for Japan’s Nikkei index, ahead of investors’ caution over key central bank meetings next week, although strong airline earnings limited losses and omicron-related fears continued to wane.

On Wall Street, US indices closed positive for the third consecutive day, with moderate increases yesterday. This Thursday, lAmerican futures are trading slightly down 0.03% for the Nasdaq and S & P500, and 0.05% for the Dow Jones.

The oil prices they rose again overnight, albeit at a much more modest pace, in line with price developments in equity markets. Unlike the rise in equities, the oil recovery is underpinned by strong supply and demand fundamentals as well as waning omicronic concerns. A possible supply contraction from Russia and Ukraine is also a supporting factor, even if Europe again experiences tighter virus restrictions during the winter. Right now, Brent futures are up 0.36% at $ 76.09, while West Texas is up 0.50% at $ 72.72.

The EUR/USD it remains steady at 1.1330 today and could retest the top of its range at 1.1375 ahead of the release of the US CPI. However, the single currency is likely to struggle at that level, as European stocks show signs of nervousness. The British pound sank to 1.3205 overnight after the government reinstated guidance on home work. Considering the number of cases in the major Eurozone countries now, it is difficult to see the euro avoiding the same fate.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin once again lost $ 50,000 and at that time it fell 1.69% to $ 49,629.2.

Economy and politics

The German exports They are up 4.1% in monthly and seasonally adjusted terms in October, higher than expected, the federal statistics office said on Thursday. The September data had shown a variation of -0.7%. A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast the figure to rise 0.9% in October. For its part, the number of imports rose 5.0%, after an increase of 0.1% in September. A Reuters poll suggested that the import figure would rise 0.4% in October. Altogether, the trade balance showed a surplus of 12.5 billion euros, after a figure of 13.2 billion euros in September. In the market, the forecast was for a surplus of 13,400 million euros.

The inflation in Chinaboiling, fell slightly in November, driven by government measures against skyrocketing commodity prices and alleviating energy shortages, as part of Beijing’s efforts to reduce the devastating effects of rising energy prices. costs in the economy. The China’s consumer price index (CPI) it increased by 2.3% year-on-year in November, 0.8 points more than in October. After five months of constant slowdown, the CPI accelerated from 0.7% in September to 1.5% the following month, and from there to 2.3% in November, which is already the highest year-on-year advance so far. of the year, according to the data published today by the National Statistics Office (ONE).

The member of the executive committee of the European Central Bank (ECB) Isabel Schnabel has stated that responding to shocks The adverse events that have led to the rise in inflation with a premature rise in interest rates could stifle the economic recovery. This was stated yesterday during the V Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), in which he stressed that, as long as there is no fully effective macroprudential policy, monetary policy must take into account the risks to financial stability, which has implications for the choice, design and calibration of central bank instruments.

The Bank of england It will wait until early next year before raising borrowing costs, later than expected, pending more information on the economic impact of the new variant of the omicron coronavirus, according to a Reuters poll.

The first British Minister Boris Johnson, on Wednesday imposed tougher restrictions against COVID-19 in England; by ordering people to work from home, wear face masks in public places and use vaccine passes, in an attempt to slow the spread of the omicron variant of the coronavirus. Criticized because his staff partied in Downing Street during last year’s Christmas lockdown, Johnson said omicron was spreading rapidly and he had no choice but to switch to “Plan B” to buy time and get more booster shots. While the measures are still a long way from the full lockdowns that hit the economy in the early days of the pandemic, they could cut back on visits to city-center restaurants, cafes and shops before Christmas and be a blow to cities. British finance.

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