Tuesday, August 16

Modern: the key is in the third dose … and beyond

The race to bring a vaccine to the market in record time was won on the streets in the most developed western countries, both Pzifer and Modern a Cambridge Massachusetts small business only three years old in the market. His IPO was a success, with a collection of 6000 million dollars , the largest of a biofame in its history for 8% of its shares, despite I did not expect to get any products out before the market in 2025.The arrival of the pandemic changed everything and its subsequent global purchase agreements with the main countries of your messenger RNA vaccines, They have led him to make his first profits, after years of heavy losses. We are talking about 7,300 million euros in the first nine months of the year, on sales of 11,300 million, with a 65% margin on their profits.

Quite an achievement that he continues to live on. Although the question is until when. If Moderna’s shares can continue making substantial progress in this market, now fully focused on the Covid-19 vaccine.

In its quotation graph we see falls in the last five sessions of 3.7% for the value that are in advances of 16.1% in the last month. In the previous quarter, the falls exceeded 36.4% while, So far in 2021, profits exceed 160%.

Modern annual stock price

Those triple-digit rises as we see have been involved in the roller coaster what the latility file exhibited by the value has become since the omicron variant arrived, Both as for well and for worse. New mutations revalue vaccines, especially, as has happened this week, with the news that the United Kingdom begins to vaccinate its adult population.

A news that is already being valued in Spain and that could continue, with the third dose, in many other countries, which would mean higher sales for the company. But what have we also seen, it can turn against the company if it fails in its immunization levels, which then turns into significant haircuts to market value.

Any step back in its level of efficiency makes the value very vulnerable on its way through the market. At the moment the expectation of contracts wins the game if the reformulation of the doses can be adapted quickly to the new variants.

And it is that nobody knows what the expectation is in this area. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Biden Administration’s Senior Health Advisor considers that it is difficult to know if we will need new doses against Covid each year.And that It will be one of the keys to the future for the company.

Regarding its future potential in the market, we see that the stock presents moderate margins. According to CNN, the consensus that it collects is an upward margin for the value of 15% with a target price of $ 313 on average with 6 analysts who bet on buying the security, 1 for overweight, 6 analysts for holding in portfolio, two for underweight and 3 for selling, with average advice to hold.

Moderna recommendations and target price

From TipRanks 15 are the analysts who follow the value, and 6 of them choose to buy, 6 to keep their securities in their portfolio and 3 to sell their shares on the market. Its price target reaches $ 311.83, which gives it a potential upside of 14.65%.

To this add the last recommendation of Cowen & Co. which begins to follow the value with PO of just $ 250, already included in its price and neutral on the value. His analyst Tyler Van Buren expects strong demand for COVID booster injections in 2022 and believes Moderna is well positioned to serve the emerging variants of concern around the world. But nevertheless, the analyst’s discounted cash flow analysis reflects a similar assessment at current levels.

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