The independent fund manager TREA AM has released its perspectives for 2022 in which they advance their forecasts on the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables and show their investment preferences for next year.
The managers of TREA AM foresee that inflation will fall in 2022, especially from the second half of the year, if only because of the year-on-year comparison of energy prices. More doubts are generated by the evolution of the growth of the global economy. The effects of the increase in prices are already being reflected in consumption due to the lower disposable income in households and, in addition, a part of the increase in activity that has been registered in the last quarter of 2021 has been due to the advance of purchases by fear of a lack of supplies, which advances lower future growth. Even so, and provided that the virus is contained and its effects controlled before 2023, the forecast is that global growth will be around 4.6% in 2022 and 3.7% in 2023.
Stable rates in the euro zone
Regarding the evolution of interest rates, after the latest signals released to the market by the Fed – ahead of March 2022 of the tapering (withdrawal of stimuli) and three rate hikes throughout the year -, TREA AM highlights that The recovery of the economy has come due to the enormous stimulus of governments and central banks, which makes them think that the recovery, in reality, is not as sustainable as expected in some areas, since it is too dependent on external stimuli . “The withdrawal of the stimuli will show the weaknesses of the economies sooner than the markets expect, preventing interest rates from rising,” underlines Ricardo Gil, head of Asset Allocation at TREA AM.
For their part, and in line with the progress made by the ECB at its last meeting, the experts at TREA AM do not believe that there will be rate hikes in the eurozone next year, not so much because inflation does not remain at relatively high levels – in June it will be around 3% – but because debt levels and uncertainties due to the pandemic are still too high to venture to withdraw economic stimuli.
Greater sophistication in investment funds
With this economic environment, the managers of TREA AM are optimistic about the evolution of investment funds in Spain in 2022. “The increase in liquidity in homes and companies makes us continue to be very optimistic about the industry, but assuming that the demands are increasingly greater. It is difficult for this year’s heritage entries to be repeated. What we expect is greater sophistication in the type of products that are offered. For the development of the industry, we believe that the ability to manage these products is decisive, ”says Ricardo Gil.
What assets should you invest in in 2022? TREA AM managers expect increased volatilities in all markets. In recent years, asset purchases by central banks have been the key factor in explaining the profitability of investments, but this conditioning factor will end in the coming months. “With this market situation, We believe that we must continue in equities and that in fixed income there will be opportunities, mainly in credit and emerging countries “, says the manager of Asset Allocation of the manager, who adds:” In our DNA is to do an active management and enter more and more new niches in which value can be added to customers, both in variable income and in fixed income and not listed, as well as alternatives, where you can find that extra profitability ”. “Whether we buy stocks or bonds, we study the company as if we were to buy it in its entirety,” he concludes.