An electoral year begins, with two regional elections and a remote but plausible possibility of generals, and the winter wind blows against Sánchez. The president, who will complete his first four-year term in power in May, can still consider it a success that his continuity is up in the air despite the obvious signs of wear enough to topple any leader in normal political conditions. If you still have options, it is because of the adversary’s traditional tendency to self-harm. The polls register a notable shift of more than a million votes to the right, but the PP gives the impression of being on the verge of wasting the good break, the decisive demarraje that sentenced the race. Married
he is putting sticks in his own wheels with a crazy internal dispute that will do him all the more damage the later to resolve it. Even so, victories in Castilla y León and Andalusia could definitively unbalance the correlation of forces and leave things in such a way that the Government could only win the legislative ones, whenever they are, if the adversary insists on losing them. A hypothesis that can never be ruled out, taking into account the trembling of the legs that the popular ones usually get when they are close to the goal.
The framework of the elections, also that of the regional ones, will certainly be a kind of plebiscite on sanchismo, which today the coalition Cabinet has lost because of its recurrent lies, its sectarianism and its pacts with the separatists Catalans and Bildu. However, the great error that haunts the opposition is to rely only on the suicide of an Executive that has a huge propaganda apparatus at its service. The only way in which Casado can consolidate his advantage is to present an alternative project that the Spanish have not yet seen beyond some repealing promises and generic proclamations of constitutionalism. A project and a team that does not need to be homogeneous or unambiguous, but rather competent, efficient and committed. For this purpose, it is a bad business, by a mere cost / benefit equation, to start devaluing your best assets.
The collapse of Cs and the absorption of their positions will not be enough, even though they have a determining influence on the provincial allocation of seats. What the polls indicate is that there are several hundred thousand disappointed Socialist voters, and looking askance at Vox will be difficult to capture. Abascal’s flank is unapproachable, hermetic, armored, in such a way that the PP needs to expand its space on the opposite side. Then, if there is a liberal-conservative majority, the time will come to make -or not- pacts. But the absence of a different model of leadership and of a program to run the state is the opportunity that Sánchez is waiting to avoid eviction.