Thursday, October 6

Macron remains invincible with 100 days to go before the French elections




Ninety-seven days after the first round of the presidential election, the first polls of the year continue to trade at Emmanuel Macron as an “invincible” candidate, with ten window points on her main rivals, Valérie Pécresse, a conservative candidate, and Marine Le Pen, a candidate from the extreme right.

According to the latest survey published by Les Echos (financial reference morning), the president candidate for reelection today would have 26% voting intentions, in the first round of April 10. Pécresse y Le Pen would be tied at 16% of voting intentions, followed, in this order, by Eric Zemmour (far right), with 13%, Jean-Lúc Mélenchon (far left), with 9%, Yannick Jadot (ecologist), with 7%, and Anne Hidalgo (socialist) with 4%.

Another five extremist candidates from the left and right range between 1 and 3% of voting intentions.

According to the same poll, Macron is listed as a possible winner, in the second round, against Pécresse (54 against 46% of the votes) and against Marine Le Pen (58 against 42%).

Historically, all the candidates who were listed as winners, one hundred days after the first round, ended up defeated.

On this occasion, the pandemic, the implosion of the traditional political landscape, the emergence of new extreme rights, the consolidation of the conservative vote of workers and popular classes, considerably complicate the forecasts, which may evolve in an unpredictable direction in the coming weeks.

However, the major underlying trends seem to be confirmed:

Historic collapse of the left

The PS, which was the majority party for several decades, is plunged at 4% of voting intentions, with a downward trend. Anne Hidalgo, born in the province of Cádiz, mayor of Paris, runs the risk of leading French socialism to catastrophe.

Very conservative and ultra conservative spin

Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemour add up together, in all the polls, between 25 and 30% of the voting intentions: much more than all the left combined. The division of the extreme right could favor Emmanuel Macron.

Valérie Pécresse, the candidate of the Republicans (LR, traditional right), the party of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, started out as the rising star of the new national political landscape. Weeks later, it does not finish taking off, and must challenge Marine Le Pen for the conservative opposition against Emmanuel Macron.

The health crisis, the pandemic, is considerably complicating the electoral campaign, introducing factors as unpredictable as determining factors.

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