The world economy is ahead of expectations. We are not talking about an unexpected advance, but rather that the pandemic has changed the order of things and the circumstances in the recovery. At least that’s how they estimate it in the CEBR, the British Center for Business and Economic Research, based in London.
And in 2022 the figure is expected to reach 100 trillion dollars, an amount never seen and also that reaches it even, two years ahead of schedule. For the Center, global GDP will be boosted by the recovery from the pandemic, although the serious risk of secondary effects will come from the hand of the new enemy: inflation and its persistence over time.
In their report they state that, if the order of price growth is maintainedIn a less transitory way than initially anticipated, in the words of the FED, central banks would face a massive problem to prevent global economies from falling into recession in 2023 and 2024.
For CEBR experts, what is important in this decade will undoubtedly be how world economies deal with inflation and its control, especially of structural elements. A fundamental weapon when establishing both fiscal policies from the countries and monetary policies from the central banks, to avoid negative growth in the future.
And one of the keys to this distortion may lead to the slowdown in China’s expected growth after the pandemic, which we have already seen in 2022, to lead to the “Sorpasso” expected on the United States as the first world economy, does not consolidate until two years later than initially planned, in 2030.
But there will be more changes in the current ranking: the rise of India, According to its forecasts, it will be placed ahead of France in 2022 as the sixth largest economy in the world and will do the same with the United Kingdom in 2023. By 2031, it is expected to be the third in contention along with the colossi: the United States and China.
The United Kingdom will also perform the “sorpasso” on France. Although for it we will have to wait until 2036 to remain as the sixth largest economy in the world relegating the French to seventh place. In the case of Germany, it will maintain its fight with Japan, as is customary in the coming years. Although Indonesia will be one of the countries that will progress the most. It will occupy in 2034, according to these estimates, the ninth economic place in the world. And one of the countries that it will surpass will be Spain.
In fact, in the progression we see how our country drops in level after the financial crisis and the pandemic, until placing in 2021 in position 14 in the world-wide ranking of the great global economies. A place, that to say of the Center for Economic and Business Research, will be maintained in the coming years until the end of the decade, until 2031. There he will drop one place, to 15th for the benefit of the dazzling Indonesia, while, five years later, in 2036, it will be Australia who snatches the position.
The report indicates that, in the case of our country, between 2022 and 2026, it foresees an annual growth rate that, on average, will fall to 2.6%. A slowdown that will become more apparent over the rest of the forecast horizon, in which the average economic growth will be 1.5% per year. The positive part is that Spain, until 2036 will be the largest Spanish-speaking economy, even ahead of Mexico.
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