The year begins with a very good rhythm in the stock markets, with the US indices reaching highs and the European indices following in that wake. As explained Pablo García, director of Divacons AlphavalueIt is also necessary to highlight the movement of the bonds. “We expected falling bond prices to lift yields on the long-term yield curve, and that’s how it is.”
For example, right now the german bund it is at -0.145% and yesterday even yesterday it was at -0.125%, “which makes more sense after seeing the latest inflation data.”
Instead, they worry, the expert points out, valuation levels. Corporate profits have risen sharply in Europe, just over 80% (in the absence of the accounts for the last quarter) in 2021, but that comparable base, which is increasingly demanding, for 2022 “from Alphavalue we forecast in around 6% “. In other words, after an exceptional year, we must be more cautious.
In the bags, what he has been throwing the most is the technology sector but also the banking sector. This year, these rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are already expected. Could it be the year of banking? “My feeling is that investors haven’t realized that the best sector in 2021 has been the banking sector.”
It has been, according to the expert, the one that has behaved best together with the technological one. “The appetite for the sector has already started and is going to continue.” The rate hike will allow a margin improvement, although we cannot forget that with the withdrawal of stimuli it will be necessary to see what happens with the default levels.