The IBEX 35 has surprised ending the month of October with an increase of 8%, with which it has erased the falls of the month of September. But from a technical point of view, the market is still in a downward trend, according to Juan José del Valle, an analyst at Activotrade.

The next resistance now facing the IBEX 35 is 8,250, at the highs of mid-September, before it began to fall sharply in the second part of the month.

From the fundamental point of view, explains the expert, the important thing is to understand if the market has already discounted the rate hikes that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are going to carry out.

Today the focus is on the Fed, since his decision will be known this afternoon and the market expects the rise to be 0.75% again. If the forecasts come true, the official interest rate of the world’s largest economy will be between 3.75% and 4%.

The banking sector is the direct beneficiary of rate hikes, but in turn they are hit by the shadow of recession, which will also affect their business. Within the Ibex 35, the two largest, Banco Santander and BBVA, are the furthest behind, compared to the positive performance of CaixaBank, Bankinter and Banco Sabadell.

Juan José del Valle explains that we must take into account that in order to Santander and BBVA, as their businesses are more international, therefore, the global context affects them more.

if we look to Banco Santander, “it would be positive if it exceeded 2.68 euros”, at highs in August and September, to expect further increases in value.

For Banco Santander, the consensus of analysts has a recommendation to buy, at 3.96 euros, which gives it an upside potential of 49%.

In the case of BBVA, the consensus also has a buy advice, at a price of 6.7 euros, which gives it a potential of 26%.

For CaixaBank, the potential is 20%, for Bankinter 16% and for Banco Sabadell 33%.

By potential, right now Santander would be the one that offers the most margin of increase, according to consensus estimates.

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