After the falls suffered in recent days in Europe, has any important level been lost in the indices of the Old Continent?
No not yet. Nothing special has been broken. I believe that the important level in the DAX, which is the same as saying the important level for all European indices, is the range between 15,670 and 15,620. And that’s because 15,670 is important natural support, which has repeatedly hit both resistance and support. And the 15,620 is the 0.382% Fibonacci of the last rise since mid-March, a level below which one would probably think of the search for the 0.618 level in the area of 15,140 points. But today, apart from having broken the bullish guideline that has been coming since October, which in my opinion is a minor sign compared to other tools, as long as that level is not broken at the moment, nothing has happened. The same is true of the EURO STOXX 50 which, although it is also losing the first of the supports, is more or less in the same context as the DAX, and only below 4,240 is it possible to speak of something deeper. The one that is doing the worst by far in recent days is the CAC 40, perhaps precisely because the exact opposite has been happening since October of last year, but it is enough that on this occasion the four luxury titles have failed, as a consequence of the outbreaks of Covid in China and even a slower pace of purchases, in addition to difficulties in imports from the United States. I think that this has been the great trigger and it is already practically at a 50% correction and it is the first time that it has been in this context of the entire rise since mid-March, so the next target is the 7,100 area. And in the case of the IBEX 35, nothing key has been broken either. It is true that it has not been possible to go above 0.618, which is the 9,325 zone, of what was the last fall. And, far from that, it has even left us a gap to the downside and seems to be on its way to the 8,970 area as a minimum; So, looking bad, but only in the short term, nothing serious has happened yet.
Do you see more weakness in the American stock market today? Because the Nasdaq, for the moment, does not seem to show signs of extreme exhaustion…
Not at all. And it was also predictable once the Nasdaq 100 and the Composite were able to break the enormous resistance it had at 13,620. And yet, the movement of the last days has led it to star in a kind of pull back that may well have ended, especially as a result of the huge upward movement that NVIDIA is leading, after presenting its results, which can be perfectly carry trading 12-13% percent above its previous all-time highs. Logically, this will also influence the evolution of many of its counterparts: Microsoft 2%, Tesla 1.5%, Alphabet 1.5%. Palantir, which is one of the stocks I’ve been talking about for a long time from the bullish side, 7%. Advanced Micro Devices, 8%. For its part, the DOW JONES is not bullish; in fact, it has already gone looking for a 50% correction of what was the last rise since March. The S&P 500 has returned to situate itself and strongly below 4,200, frustrating the intended attack on 4,300, which is the key area for the S&P500 in the long-term development. He NASDAQ 100 it is very good, upwards and without problems, but the NASDAQ Composite, which also has a higher travel. The Philadelphia semiconductor, which is in a position to confirm above 445, and the Russell 2000 does not play anything and every time it reaches 1,825 it returns to 1,725 and has been like that since mid-March. But if something is worth trusting, it is in the technological indices and, therefore, in some of its illustrious components.
And what values can we trust within this sector?
I would rule out Apple and Microsoft, because I think they could die of success, because they have done wonderfully, but I am reluctant to think that they are going to go above their all-time highs, because they are at 3% and 7%. %, respectively. I would also rule out NVIDIA. So these three I would rule out because they may die of success and go to a few that may have, if all goes as it seems, a more ambitious potential run: Alphabet, Big Data analytics technology Palantir, Amazon, Meta ( Facebook) and I would also be very aware, although with a lower weighting, of Qualcomm, not because I am doing it especially well, but because of the forcefulness of the support it has received in the long term. And for the most risky Zscaler; Here you have to combine money management very well with risk management.
What can we save both at a sectoral level and at a value level in the Ibex 35?
I would simply try to stay out of the European and especially Spanish market. First, because I don’t see any value that could be bought, if anything, Almirall, and because it is in tremendous trouble; Thus, if at any time the stop at Almirall is worth it, it is very clear to us, in percentage terms no more than 4%. But removing this value, little else. I still like Amadeus, it looks like it has pulled back to previous resistance now support and may continue to go higher. And obviously, at the present time, I would rule out the entry, no matter how much we believe that they have fallen, in any bank. Not only individually in each entity (each one has different aspects, but none of them are good enough to buy), but above all also because the European banking sector index is not doing well. Therefore, it does not follow the general context and it does not follow the banking sector. Why are we going to trust securities from the banking sector, just because we think that they have already fallen a lot, which is also not the case?
How do you see the dollar index?
There were two key levels: 1.11, the level above which you could buy with targets at 1.1280; but above all if it lost the 1.09 zone, breaking the tremendous sequence that brought increasing highs and lows, what was appropriate was the adoption of short positions thinking that at least it will go to look for some Fibonacci level of what has been All the way up from September/October of last year. The first level of proportional correction is 1.0470, but 1.0520 can also serve as support, but I think that at a minimum we will see that move. In addition, it is obviously endorsed by what the dollar index is doing, of which we said that it is perfectly possible to take long positions and for the moment it is working very well. So I think that the euro dollar will continue to fall.